{
  "generatedAt": "2026-06-23T04:57:26.981Z",
  "dataVersion": "2026-06-23",
  "risks": [
    {
      "id": "R01",
      "channel": "Безпекова ескалація / war-risk",
      "logic": "Вищий безпековий тиск піднімає risk premium, зменшує CAPEX і підвищує простої.",
      "trigger": "sustained attacks / insured losses / security alert level",
      "primaryParameter": "P04",
      "primarySectors": [
        "all sectors"
      ],
      "probabilities": {
        "shock": 0.7,
        "inertial": 0.45,
        "transformation": 0.25
      },
      "preparedness": {
        "shock": 0.25,
        "inertial": 0.45,
        "transformation": 0.65
      },
      "riskScores": {
        "shock": 52.5,
        "inertial": 24.8,
        "transformation": 8.8
      },
      "impact": 5,
      "cascade": 5,
      "exposure": 5,
      "safeguardPackage": "war-risk insurance; guarantees; continuity plans; protected critical production nodes",
      "sourceUrl": "https://gmk.center/en/posts/business-in-a-minefield-who-insures-the-ukrainian-economy-against-missiles-and-losses-and-how/",
      "weight": 0.12
    },
    {
      "id": "R02",
      "channel": "Енергетичний дефіцит",
      "logic": "Енергетичний дефіцит знижує виробничу стелю, підвищує собівартість і зменшує експортну маржу.",
      "trigger": "outage hours; import capacity stress; industrial price shock",
      "primaryParameter": "P01/P07",
      "primarySectors": [
        "metallurgy",
        "chemistry",
        "construction materials",
        "machinery"
      ],
      "probabilities": {
        "shock": 0.65,
        "inertial": 0.42,
        "transformation": 0.25
      },
      "preparedness": {
        "shock": 0.3,
        "inertial": 0.5,
        "transformation": 0.7
      },
      "riskScores": {
        "shock": 45.5,
        "inertial": 21,
        "transformation": 7.5
      },
      "impact": 5,
      "cascade": 5,
      "exposure": 5,
      "safeguardPackage": "industrial energy contracts; distributed generation; grid repair; energy efficiency",
      "sourceUrl": "https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/5e369893-eceb-438e-a952-5ed811b4e8c0/UkrainesEnergySecurityandtheComingWinterApre-winterassessment.pdf",
      "weight": 0.12
    },
    {
      "id": "R03",
      "channel": "Затримка зовнішнього фінансування",
      "logic": "Затримка або недоотримання фінансування тисне на бюджет, резерви, імпорт і довіру.",
      "trigger": "external aid shortfall > USD 10bn/year or delayed tranches",
      "primaryParameter": "P03",
      "primarySectors": [
        "budget",
        "finance",
        "construction",
        "energy"
      ],
      "probabilities": {
        "shock": 0.55,
        "inertial": 0.35,
        "transformation": 0.2
      },
      "preparedness": {
        "shock": 0.35,
        "inertial": 0.55,
        "transformation": 0.7
      },
      "riskScores": {
        "shock": 28.6,
        "inertial": 12.6,
        "transformation": 4.8
      },
      "impact": 5,
      "cascade": 4,
      "exposure": 5,
      "safeguardPackage": "financing calendar; reserve buffer; spending prioritization; IFI bridge lines",
      "sourceUrl": "https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/inflyatsiya-tsogo-roku-timchasovo-prishvidshitsya-ale-povernetsya-do-znijennya-v-nastupni-roki--inflyatsiyniy-zvit",
      "weight": 0.1
    },
    {
      "id": "R04",
      "channel": "Експортно-логістичне звуження",
      "logic": "Слабша логістика зменшує валютну виручку, маржу виробника і здатність виконувати контракти.",
      "trigger": "throughput -15%; border delays; port or Danube disruption",
      "primaryParameter": "P05",
      "primarySectors": [
        "metallurgy",
        "agriculture",
        "machinery",
        "chemistry"
      ],
      "probabilities": {
        "shock": 0.55,
        "inertial": 0.35,
        "transformation": 0.22
      },
      "preparedness": {
        "shock": 0.3,
        "inertial": 0.5,
        "transformation": 0.7
      },
      "riskScores": {
        "shock": 30.8,
        "inertial": 14,
        "transformation": 5.3
      },
      "impact": 4,
      "cascade": 5,
      "exposure": 5,
      "safeguardPackage": "ports; Danube; rail/border digitalisation; cargo insurance; buyer contracts",
      "sourceUrl": "https://transport.ec.europa.eu/ukraine/keeping-transport-running-smoothly/eu-ukraine-solidarity-lanes_en",
      "weight": 0.1
    },
    {
      "id": "R05",
      "channel": "Кадровий дефіцит",
      "logic": "Кадровий дефіцит затримує навіть профінансовані проєкти і знижує якість виконання.",
      "trigger": "technical vacancy gap > 15%; training throughput below plan",
      "primaryParameter": "P06",
      "primarySectors": [
        "construction",
        "machinery",
        "energy",
        "logistics"
      ],
      "probabilities": {
        "shock": 0.45,
        "inertial": 0.35,
        "transformation": 0.25
      },
      "preparedness": {
        "shock": 0.25,
        "inertial": 0.45,
        "transformation": 0.65
      },
      "riskScores": {
        "shock": 17.3,
        "inertial": 9.9,
        "transformation": 4.5
      },
      "impact": 4,
      "cascade": 4,
      "exposure": 4,
      "safeguardPackage": "dual education; short certificates; veteran integration; regional mobility support",
      "sourceUrl": "https://index.minfin.com.ua/ua/labour/salary/min/",
      "weight": 0.08
    },
    {
      "id": "R06",
      "channel": "Недостатність страхування та гарантій",
      "logic": "Без страхування і гарантій private CAPEX залишається коротким або відкладається.",
      "trigger": "insurance volume below target; guarantee pipeline gap",
      "primaryParameter": "P02/P04",
      "primarySectors": [
        "finance",
        "construction",
        "machinery",
        "energy"
      ],
      "probabilities": {
        "shock": 0.6,
        "inertial": 0.42,
        "transformation": 0.22
      },
      "preparedness": {
        "shock": 0.25,
        "inertial": 0.45,
        "transformation": 0.7
      },
      "riskScores": {
        "shock": 28.8,
        "inertial": 14.8,
        "transformation": 4.2
      },
      "impact": 4,
      "cascade": 4,
      "exposure": 5,
      "safeguardPackage": "war-risk insurance; MFI guarantees; project preparation facility",
      "sourceUrl": "https://gmk.center/en/posts/business-in-a-minefield-who-insures-the-ukrainian-economy-against-missiles-and-losses-and-how/",
      "weight": 0.08
    },
    {
      "id": "R07",
      "channel": "Фіскально-борговий тиск",
      "logic": "Високий дефіцит і борг звужують простір для інвестиційної політики і підвищують ризик вартості капіталу.",
      "trigger": "deficit path worsens; debt/GDP above scenario band",
      "primaryParameter": "P03",
      "primarySectors": [
        "budget",
        "finance",
        "all sectors"
      ],
      "probabilities": {
        "shock": 0.55,
        "inertial": 0.38,
        "transformation": 0.2
      },
      "preparedness": {
        "shock": 0.35,
        "inertial": 0.55,
        "transformation": 0.75
      },
      "riskScores": {
        "shock": 28.6,
        "inertial": 13.7,
        "transformation": 4
      },
      "impact": 5,
      "cascade": 4,
      "exposure": 5,
      "safeguardPackage": "debt calendar control; revenue measures; local GVA; expenditure prioritization",
      "sourceUrl": "https://mof.gov.ua/en/borgovi-platezhi-ta-prognozi",
      "weight": 0.09
    },
    {
      "id": "R08",
      "channel": "Проєктна готовність і governance bottleneck",
      "logic": "Відбудовчі кошти не переходять у output без bankable projects, дозволів, procurement і delivery capacity.",
      "trigger": "execution rate below plan; permits backlog; procurement delays",
      "primaryParameter": "P08/P09",
      "primarySectors": [
        "construction",
        "infrastructure",
        "energy",
        "regions"
      ],
      "probabilities": {
        "shock": 0.5,
        "inertial": 0.38,
        "transformation": 0.22
      },
      "preparedness": {
        "shock": 0.25,
        "inertial": 0.48,
        "transformation": 0.68
      },
      "riskScores": {
        "shock": 19.2,
        "inertial": 10.1,
        "transformation": 3.6
      },
      "impact": 4,
      "cascade": 4,
      "exposure": 4,
      "safeguardPackage": "project pipeline; permitting fast-track; transparent procurement; delivery units",
      "sourceUrl": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099022026094036395/pdf/P514499-22f93f3a-4278-42bc-b907-db9553d12069.pdf",
      "weight": 0.08
    },
    {
      "id": "R09",
      "channel": "CBAM і регуляторна невідповідність",
      "logic": "Вуглецева і технічна невідповідність знижує доступ до регульованих ринків і маржу експорту.",
      "trigger": "MRV gap; carbon reporting gap; EU market compliance gap",
      "primaryParameter": "P10",
      "primarySectors": [
        "metallurgy",
        "cement",
        "chemicals",
        "energy-intensive exports"
      ],
      "probabilities": {
        "shock": 0.4,
        "inertial": 0.32,
        "transformation": 0.2
      },
      "preparedness": {
        "shock": 0.25,
        "inertial": 0.5,
        "transformation": 0.72
      },
      "riskScores": {
        "shock": 11.5,
        "inertial": 6.1,
        "transformation": 2.2
      },
      "impact": 4,
      "cascade": 3,
      "exposure": 4,
      "safeguardPackage": "carbon accounting; energy-efficiency CAPEX; certification; green finance",
      "sourceUrl": "https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_en",
      "weight": 0.07
    },
    {
      "id": "R10",
      "channel": "Глобальна кон’юнктура ринків",
      "logic": "Світові ціни на сталь, енергію, добрива та агропродукцію змінюють маржу, експорт і імпортну вартість.",
      "trigger": "global demand shock; commodity price shift",
      "primaryParameter": "P05/P10",
      "primarySectors": [
        "metallurgy",
        "agriculture",
        "chemistry",
        "energy"
      ],
      "probabilities": {
        "shock": 0.38,
        "inertial": 0.32,
        "transformation": 0.25
      },
      "preparedness": {
        "shock": 0.3,
        "inertial": 0.5,
        "transformation": 0.65
      },
      "riskScores": {
        "shock": 10.2,
        "inertial": 6.1,
        "transformation": 3.4
      },
      "impact": 4,
      "cascade": 3,
      "exposure": 4,
      "safeguardPackage": "product diversification; long contracts; hedging where possible; market intelligence",
      "sourceUrl": "https://worldsteel.org/media/press-releases/2026/worldsteel-short-range-outlook-april-2026/",
      "weight": 0.06
    },
    {
      "id": "R11",
      "channel": "Низька абсорбція відбудови",
      "logic": "Навіть наявні кошти дають слабший ефект, якщо низька локалізація, слабка підрядна база і дефіцит матеріалів.",
      "trigger": "disbursement without local content; project delays",
      "primaryParameter": "P08/P09",
      "primarySectors": [
        "construction",
        "materials",
        "regions",
        "budget"
      ],
      "probabilities": {
        "shock": 0.45,
        "inertial": 0.35,
        "transformation": 0.18
      },
      "preparedness": {
        "shock": 0.22,
        "inertial": 0.45,
        "transformation": 0.7
      },
      "riskScores": {
        "shock": 18,
        "inertial": 9.9,
        "transformation": 2.8
      },
      "impact": 4,
      "cascade": 4,
      "exposure": 4,
      "safeguardPackage": "local-content criteria; industrial parks; materials pipeline; supplier mapping",
      "sourceUrl": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099022026094036395/pdf/P514499-22f93f3a-4278-42bc-b907-db9553d12069.pdf",
      "weight": 0.06
    },
    {
      "id": "R12",
      "channel": "Data/source integrity risk",
      "logic": "Слабка трасованість даних знижує довіру до сценарної кімнати і публічного звіту.",
      "trigger": "unbound graph cards; missing URL; noncanonical source",
      "primaryParameter": "Data UX",
      "primarySectors": [
        "dashboard",
        "all claims"
      ],
      "probabilities": {
        "shock": 0.3,
        "inertial": 0.22,
        "transformation": 0.12
      },
      "preparedness": {
        "shock": 0.4,
        "inertial": 0.65,
        "transformation": 0.85
      },
      "riskScores": {
        "shock": 3.9,
        "inertial": 1.7,
        "transformation": 0.4
      },
      "impact": 3,
      "cascade": 3,
      "exposure": 3,
      "safeguardPackage": "source drawers; canonical map; audit flags; GAP quarantine",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/framework-on-management-of-emerging-critical-risks_2f2eddd8-en.html",
      "weight": 0.04
    }
  ],
  "adjustments": [
    {
      "riskId": "R01",
      "affectedParameter": "P04",
      "impacts": {
        "shock": -20,
        "inertial": -10,
        "transformation": -5
      },
      "formulaLogic": "P04_adj=P04+impact",
      "explanation": "security escalation reduces insurability and increases risk premium"
    },
    {
      "riskId": "R01",
      "affectedParameter": "P02",
      "impacts": {
        "shock": -12,
        "inertial": -7,
        "transformation": -3
      },
      "formulaLogic": "P02_adj=P02+impact",
      "explanation": "higher security risk increases capital cost"
    },
    {
      "riskId": "R02",
      "affectedParameter": "P01",
      "impacts": {
        "shock": -18,
        "inertial": -10,
        "transformation": -5
      },
      "formulaLogic": "P01_adj=P01+impact",
      "explanation": "energy deficit lowers usable industrial capacity"
    },
    {
      "riskId": "R02",
      "affectedParameter": "P07",
      "impacts": {
        "shock": -12,
        "inertial": -8,
        "transformation": -4
      },
      "formulaLogic": "P07_adj=P07+impact",
      "explanation": "price volatility reduces tariff predictability"
    },
    {
      "riskId": "R03",
      "affectedParameter": "P03",
      "impacts": {
        "shock": -20,
        "inertial": -12,
        "transformation": -6
      },
      "formulaLogic": "P03_adj=P03+impact",
      "explanation": "aid delay weakens budget and reserve stability"
    },
    {
      "riskId": "R04",
      "affectedParameter": "P05",
      "impacts": {
        "shock": -18,
        "inertial": -10,
        "transformation": -5
      },
      "formulaLogic": "P05_adj=P05+impact",
      "explanation": "logistics disruption lowers export throughput"
    },
    {
      "riskId": "R05",
      "affectedParameter": "P06",
      "impacts": {
        "shock": -15,
        "inertial": -8,
        "transformation": -4
      },
      "formulaLogic": "P06_adj=P06+impact",
      "explanation": "labour shortage lowers implementation capacity"
    },
    {
      "riskId": "R06",
      "affectedParameter": "P04",
      "impacts": {
        "shock": -18,
        "inertial": -10,
        "transformation": -4
      },
      "formulaLogic": "P04_adj=P04+impact",
      "explanation": "guarantee gap reduces risk coverage"
    },
    {
      "riskId": "R06",
      "affectedParameter": "P02",
      "impacts": {
        "shock": -10,
        "inertial": -6,
        "transformation": -3
      },
      "formulaLogic": "P02_adj=P02+impact",
      "explanation": "risk coverage gap raises capital cost"
    },
    {
      "riskId": "R07",
      "affectedParameter": "P03",
      "impacts": {
        "shock": -12,
        "inertial": -8,
        "transformation": -4
      },
      "formulaLogic": "P03_adj=P03+impact",
      "explanation": "fiscal stress lowers financing confidence"
    },
    {
      "riskId": "R08",
      "affectedParameter": "P08",
      "impacts": {
        "shock": -12,
        "inertial": -8,
        "transformation": -4
      },
      "formulaLogic": "P08_adj=P08+impact",
      "explanation": "weak project execution lowers local value capture"
    },
    {
      "riskId": "R08",
      "affectedParameter": "P09",
      "impacts": {
        "shock": -15,
        "inertial": -8,
        "transformation": -4
      },
      "formulaLogic": "P09_adj=P09+impact",
      "explanation": "project readiness gap lowers public-demand effect"
    },
    {
      "riskId": "R09",
      "affectedParameter": "P10",
      "impacts": {
        "shock": -15,
        "inertial": -8,
        "transformation": -4
      },
      "formulaLogic": "P10_adj=P10+impact",
      "explanation": "CBAM/MRV gap lowers technology and compliance score"
    },
    {
      "riskId": "R10",
      "affectedParameter": "P05",
      "impacts": {
        "shock": -10,
        "inertial": -6,
        "transformation": -3
      },
      "formulaLogic": "P05_adj=P05+impact",
      "explanation": "global market stress lowers export margins"
    },
    {
      "riskId": "R11",
      "affectedParameter": "P08",
      "impacts": {
        "shock": -18,
        "inertial": -10,
        "transformation": -4
      },
      "formulaLogic": "P08_adj=P08+impact",
      "explanation": "absorption gap lowers local GVA capture"
    },
    {
      "riskId": "R12",
      "affectedParameter": "Data UX",
      "impacts": {
        "shock": -10,
        "inertial": -5,
        "transformation": -2
      },
      "formulaLogic": "SourceReadiness_adj=SourceReadiness+impact",
      "explanation": "source integrity risk lowers public trust and dashboard usability"
    }
  ]
}