RI

Foresight suite

Mathematical methods

Reader-facing explanation of state-space logic, update rules, extrapolation, and quantitative bridges.

This page is for readers who want the quantitative logic described in plain language rather than buried inside code, workbook tabs, or opaque formulas.

State-space and update logic

State-space logic is used here as a way to think about hidden industrial capacity, visible indicators, and gradual updating as new evidence or expert information arrives.

The public interface simplifies this logic, but the intuition remains important: a scenario is not a single point; it is a structured state that can be read, challenged, and updated.

Bridges and extrapolation

GDP-equivalent, revenues, deficits, and debt pressure are not independent decorative figures. They are linked through quantitative bridges that translate scenario conditions into macro-fiscal consequences.

Where only partial endpoints exist, public paths must be labeled clearly so readers can distinguish observed history, scenario anchors, and interpolation or sandbox approximation.

Expert input and aggregation

Expert responses do not automatically replace the canonical model. They belong to the calibration and challenge layer, where Delphi structure can inform later refinement or interpretation.